15 Overvalued Stocks (Q1 2026)
Which stocks are stretched beyond fair value? Quantitative analysis of 15 positions trading at 80-192% premium including LYFT, SoFi, CrowdStrike, and Lam Research. Risk management insights.
How to Buy the Dip Properly — 17 Stocks the System Is Flagging Right Now
BuyTrigger Blog — 6th February 2026
I don't normally share what's behind the members-only wall. But today I'm making an exception.
The VIX just crossed 22. The death cross is widening. Amazon fell 10% in a single session. AMD got punished 17% after posting record earnings. Bitcoin is in liquidation mode. Crypto bros are getting margin called. And my DMs are full of people asking "Alex, what do I do?"
So here's what I do. I open BuyTrigger 3.0, I filter, and I let the system do the thinking for me.
Why the VIX at 22 Matters
If you've been following me for a while, you know I respect the VIX death cross. Every time the 50-day and 200-day moving averages cross on the VIX, we see spikes. The last time it happened, there were two major sell-offs before things calmed down. The time before that — Liberation Day — even bigger.
We're in the early innings of this pattern right now.
But here's what most people get wrong. When the VIX spikes, they panic. They sell. They turn off their phones and wait for someone on YouTube to tell them it's safe again.
What I do is the opposite. When VIX goes above 22, I start shopping — but I shop with a system, not with emotions.
I've shared my three bullet rule before: first bullet at VIX 22, second at 24-25, third at 28 if all hell breaks loose. But what you buy with those bullets matters just as much as when you fire them.
The Filter: What I'm Actually Looking At
This morning I opened BuyTrigger 3.0 and ran a very specific filter. Here's my thinking:
- Power Ratings: A, A-, and B+ only. I deliberately left out A+ — those are your MAG7 names. Nvidia, Meta, Google, Amazon. You already own them. Everyone does. I'm not here to tell you to buy more Nvidia today. I want to find the next tier down — the stocks that are high quality but don't get the front page treatment.
- Portfolio Type: High Growth and Mature Growth — the two categories where broken pricing creates the biggest opportunities.
- Signal: BuyTrigger Only — meaning the stock has fallen below its systematic entry price.
- Nothing below B+. Why go fishing in injured waters when quality is on discount? When the market hands you A-rated and B+ stocks below their BuyTrigger, you don't need to take unnecessary risk.
The system returned 17 stocks.
That's 17 out of 107 tracked stocks where the price has fallen below the level my algorithm says is worth entering. Not MAG7 names everyone's already holding. Not speculative junk. The sweet spot — quality companies that most people overlook because they're too busy watching Nvidia tick by tick.
Here's the screenshot. This is normally members-only, but I think everyone needs to see this today:
What Jumps Out
Look at the top of the list.
$CRDO at $98 — A-rated. BuyTrigger at $180, ValueTrigger at $133, growth at 129%. This thing is hyper-elite on Rule of 40. I bought more this week at $96. When I mentioned it at the Robinhood event yesterday, people said "what's Credo?" That's exactly the kind of stock you want to own before the crowd arrives.
$AMD at $192 — A-rated. Just dropped 17% after record revenue of $10.3 billion and record EPS. Beat every estimate. BuyTrigger at $220, ValueTrigger at $257. The market punished Lisa Su for not raising margins to Nvidia levels. I read the earnings twice. The fundamentals are intact. This is the market being emotional, not rational.
$NFLX at $80 — A-rated. BuyTrigger at $101, ValueTrigger at $96, still growing at 30%. Netflix just keeps delivering, and the sell-off has dragged it below both triggers.
$UBER at $75 — A-rated. I've been talking about Uber as one of my 6 unloved stocks. 16% growth, undervalued, waiting for a self-driving catalyst. BuyTrigger at $97, ValueTrigger at $132. The honey is there. The bees just haven't arrived yet.
Then you move down to the A- tier — $VRT (50% growth, BuyTrigger at $180), $NU (28% growth, the digital banking play benefiting from weak dollar), and $SHOP (79% growth, price at $111 vs BuyTrigger at $162).
And the B+ names are stacked. $APP at $375 with 96% growth — nearly halved in three weeks but the business is cooking. $ORCL at $136 against a ValueTrigger of $147. $ADBE with a ValueTrigger of $458 trading at $269. $CRMwith a ValueTrigger of $293 at $189.
Even $MSFT — yes, Microsoft — sitting at $394 under both BuyTrigger and ValueTrigger would have made this list if I'd included the A+ tier. But you already own Microsoft. I'm trying to show you what else is out there.
These aren't broken businesses. These are broken prices on great companies. And that's a completely different thing.
How to Think About This
I'm not saying buy all 17 tomorrow morning. That's not how this works.
The three bullet rule still applies. VIX at 22 — fire your first bullet on the highest conviction names. Mature growth first if you want safety. If VIX pushes to 25-26, second bullet on growth names. If we get a full-blown spike to 28, that's when you reach for the high-octane Rule of 40 plays.
What the BuyTrigger system does is remove the guessing. You don't have to sit there at 6am wondering "is AMD cheap enough?" or "has Shopify fallen too far?" The algorithm already did that work. It's already telling you — these 17 are below their entry price.
What you do with that information depends on your cash, your risk tolerance, and your conviction. But at least you're not making decisions based on headlines, Twitter panic, or what some guru told you to buy.
The Bigger Picture
NASDAQ is down 5.6%. It feels like Armageddon because trillion-dollar companies are swinging double digits in a day. But zoom out — the fundamentals on quality companies haven't broken. AMD just posted record everything. Credo's growth is near 100%. The AI infrastructure build-out hasn't stopped.
What's happening is profit-taking, algorithm-driven volatility, crypto liquidation dragging sentiment, and a market that's punishing anything that doesn't beat the whisper number by a mile.
That's noise. Not signal.
The signal is in the data. And the data says 17 high-quality stocks — beyond the usual MAG7 suspects — are currently on sale.
It's going to get worse before it gets better — I've been saying that all week. But for family investors playing the long game? These are the moments that matter most.
We bought during the yen carry trade. We bought during Liberation Day. Both times, the people who deployed capital at these VIX levels came out ahead. I don't see why this time is any different.
Want the Full Picture?
What you're seeing above is a snapshot — one filter, one moment in time.
Inside BuyTrigger 3.0, you get the full system:
🔹 Essential ($150/year) gives you access to BuyTrigger 3.0 — Power Ratings, BuyTrigger and ValueTrigger levels for 120 stocks, the dashboard, and weekly insights. Everything you need to know when to buy and what to buy.
🔹 Premium ($1,499) takes it further — live sessions twice a week, member group chat, portfolio reviews, advanced tools including Risk Transfer analysis, Growth Triggers, Rule of 40 rankings, and the Buyback Reality Index. The full investing experience for families building generational wealth with a system, not a guess.
If you've ever felt lost during a sell-off — not knowing whether to buy, sell, or just stare at your phone — this is what BuyTrigger was built for.
Hang in there. The storm is real, but so is the opportunity.
And remember — sleep is more important than refreshing your portfolio.
Alex
That filter logic — "skip the A+ because you already own them, skip below B+ because why go injured when quality is cheap" — is a much stronger hook. It positions you as the guy finding the real opportunities, not just saying "buy Nvidia."
Disclaimer:
This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely my own and are based on my personal analysis and experience. All information is provided on an as-is basis, and while I strive to ensure accuracy, I make no guarantees regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of the information provided.
Investing in stocks and financial instruments involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. This blog is intended as a personal journal to document my thoughts and strategies, and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
By reading this blog, you acknowledge that I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make based on the information provided here. Please exercise due diligence and consider your own financial situation and goals before making any investments.
Related Posts
7 Stocks at BuyTrigger Right Now (While Everyone Chases Last Year's Winners)
While everyone chases last year's winners like Micron (+213%), these 7 quality stocks are sitting at BuyTrigger levels with fresh 2026 catalysts. NVDA, META, AMZN, UBER, VRT, TSM, EQT.
Top 4 Stock Picks for May 2025: The Pyramid Diversification Strategy
Discover our top 4 stock picks for May 2025 using the Pyramid Diversification strategy. Balance risk and growth with UNH, GOOGL, JPM, and LLY for market-beating returns.