My 2026 market outlook for family investors. VIX at 6-month lows, January recovery odds, and why smart money is positioning now. Here's what I'm watching.
2025 had its moments. Some wins, some head-scratchers, and a whole lot of noise.
But when I look at the data heading into 2026? I'm optimistic.
Not crazy optimistic. Not "quit your job and go all in" optimistic.
But the setup is interesting. Let me show you what I'm seeing.
The VIX Just Did Something Worth Watching
VIX hit 14 this week.
That's the lowest it's been in six months.
Now normally when VIX gets this low, you'd expect portfolios to be hitting all-time highs. Is yours? Mine isn't. So what's going on?
Here's the thing — volume is low. Everyone's in holiday mode. Whatever moves you're seeing right now? It's a handful of traders and options activity pumping things up.
I'm not reading too much into anything between now and mid-January.
But here's where it gets interesting.
Shoutout to Sabu Trades for pulling this data — every time VIX drops from 26 to 14 in less than three months, historically we see:
9 months later: S&P up 10%
12 months later: S&P up 13%
If S&P does 13%, your portfolio could do double that.
That's not a guarantee. But historically? This setup has been bullish.
What About January?
We just had some December drops. Does January usually recover?
I looked at the data from 2010 to 2024:
S&P 500: Recovered 3 out of 5 times (60%)
NASDAQ 100: Recovered 4 out of 6 times (67%)
The odds favour a bounce.
Does that mean it will happen? No. But I like those odds better than a coin flip.
Why I'm Not Believing Anything Until March
Here's my honest take.
January through March is la la land.
Q4 earnings will look great. Everything feels Christmassy. Then comes tax harvesting. Analyst upgrades. Optimistic forecasts.
The real picture only comes into focus after March.
That's when we'll see what's actually happening with the US market, Europe, Japan, everything.
So while I'm optimistic about 2026, I'm also patient. Sitting on my hands. Not chasing Santa Rally headlines or Tim Cook buying Nike or whatever noise is floating around.
The Bond Yield Situation
I've been watching the Moody's Triple-A corporate bond yield for years.
Right now it's stuck at 5.34%.
For context — this has been creeping up since 2021. That's exactly when Buffett started offloading stocks and taking profits. The man's been selling into strength for years now.
I was thinking maybe this would come down with a weaker dollar in 2025. It didn't.
Maybe this is the new normal.
For now, I'm not changing my bond yield assumptions for valuation. Nothing drastic has happened to make me adjust. But I'm watching it closely.
The DXY Setup That Feels Different
Here's something that caught my attention.
The dollar index (DXY) is weakening. Normally when you hear that, it sounds bearish. Remember earlier this year? Weakening DXY, markets down, everyone panicking.
But this time it feels different.
Interest rates are lower. Oil and gas are getting cheaper. And the US is selling more than it's importing — data centres, electrical equipment, technology, ads. Everything.
When you're selling to the world, you want a cheaper dollar. Makes your goods affordable for everyone else.
Brazil, Singapore, Malaysia, Europe — they can import more US goods when the dollar isn't crushing them.
So weakening DXY going into 2026? I think it might actually be bullish this time.
Let's see what January brings.
The Bigger Picture
I saw Charlie Bilello's updated chart this week.
Since 2011, NASDAQ has returned 18.7% annually on average.
Think about that. What were you doing in 2011? I had just gotten married. No kids yet.
If I had done nothing — literally nothing — except buy NASDAQ and hold? That's 1,197% growth over 15 years.
Not picking stocks. Not timing the market. Just holding.
And with the US capturing AI, data centres, energy independence, and global talent? This run might continue through 2030 and beyond.
The Smart Money Is Positioning
You're seeing Ray Dalio pledge $75 million to fund generational wealth accounts.
Michael and Susan Dell just put in $6.25 billion.
These aren't short-term trades. This is billionaires positioning for the next generation.
When smart money moves like this, I pay attention.
My 2026 Targets
Here's where I'm at:
Conservative forecast: 16%
Target growth: 30%
Portfolio potential: 32%
Double or go home.
Is it aggressive? Maybe. But with the setups I'm seeing — VIX unwinding, January recovery odds in our favour, DXY potentially bullish, and long-term NASDAQ momentum — I think it's achievable.
Not guaranteed. Achievable.
A Note on "Unloved" Stocks
There's a group of stocks I'm watching closely.
Not dead. Still growing. But unloved by the market right now because their momentum isn't matching their high-flying peers.
The market likes 40%, 50%, 60% growth. These stocks are doing 15-20%. Good businesses. Just not attracting the bees despite having honey.
Here's the thing — remember Google this time last year?
I was pushing Google when it was unloved. Growth had dropped to 11-12%. The stock was flat. Nobody wanted it.
Then the Gemini announcements came. Analysts upgraded their forecasts. Growth jumped to 21%. The stock went from $150 to $314.
Unloved doesn't mean dead. It means waiting for a catalyst.
I've got my eye on a few names that could do the same thing in 2026. More on that soon.
What's Next
That's my 2026 Outlook.
On Monday I'll be sharing more in my weekly newsletter — including which sectors I'm watching and how I'm thinking about positioning for the year ahead.
If you want systematic investing for long-term family wealth — not day trading, not FOMO, not chasing headlines — you're in the right place.
This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely my own and are based on my personal analysis and experience. All information is provided on an as-is basis, and while I strive to ensure accuracy, I make no guarantees regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of the information provided.
Investing in stocks and financial instruments involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. This blog is intended as a personal journal to document my thoughts and strategies, and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
By reading this blog, you acknowledge that I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make based on the information provided here. Please exercise due diligence and consider your own financial situation and goals before making any investments.
While everyone chases last year's winners like Micron (+213%), these 7 quality stocks are sitting at BuyTrigger levels with fresh 2026 catalysts. NVDA, META, AMZN, UBER, VRT, TSM, EQT.
Discover 21 carefully selected stocks across 7 categories for 2026. From AI infrastructure to consumer staples — systematic investing for generational wealth.
Discover strategic investment recommendations and key stock picks to enhance your portfolio in a low interest rate environment, leveraging insights from BuyTrigger.io.
