4 Tech Giants on Sale: What the Shorts Are Really Telling Us?
Meta, Netflix, Adobe, and Salesforce keep falling. I dug into the short interest data. Three are unloved. One is a genuine warning sign.
4 min read · January 31, 2026
$80 billion wiped out in one day. A 37-year growth streak ended. And the forecasts just got demolished.
UnitedHealth was the definition of a "safe" stock. 37 years of consecutive revenue growth. Steady earnings. The kind of name financial advisors put in portfolios and forget about.
On January 27, 2026, that narrative shattered.
The stock crashed 19.6% in a single session – its worst day in years. $80 billion in market cap vanished. Trading volume hit 640% above average as institutions rushed for the exits.
Nobody predicted this. Not Wall Street. Not us. But now that the data is in, here's what it shows – and why it matters for your portfolio.
The Triple Blow
Three catalysts hit simultaneously:
1. First Revenue Decline in 37 Years
UNH guided 2026 revenue at $439 billion. Sounds big – until you realise 2025 was $447.6 billion. That's a 2% decline. Wall Street expected $454 billion.
The company that never shrank is now shrinking.
2. Medicare Rate Shock
The night before earnings, CMS proposed 2027 Medicare Advantage rates: +0.09%. Wall Street expected +4-6%. Last year was +5.06%.
Meanwhile, UNH's medical costs are rising 7.5-10% annually. Do the math: costs up 10%, reimbursement up 0.09%. That's a margin death spiral.
3. Earnings Collapse
Q4 GAAP EPS: $0.01. Prior year: $5.98. A 99.8% collapse.
Yes, there were one-time charges. But $1.6 billion in "one-time" items signals something structural, not temporary.
From Compounder to Decliner
Here's the number that tells the whole story:
Before earnings: UNH's projected growth rate was +4.79%
After earnings: That growth rate flipped to -1.04%
Not slower growth. Negative growth. The compounder became a decliner in one week.
Analyst forecasts were demolished across every forward year:
- 2025: Cut 22%
- 2026: Cut 27%
- 2027: Cut 26%
- 2028: Cut 21%
The market isn't pricing a bad quarter. It's pricing a broken thesis.
What BuyTrigger 3.0 Shows Now
Let me be clear: our system didn't predict this crash. Nobody did.
But BuyTrigger 3.0 processes the new reality immediately. Here's what the data shows after the earnings collapse:
Ranking: Dropped from 33 to 86. Top quartile to bottom half.
BuyTrigger Price: Fell from $347 to $248. A 28% cut to the systematic entry point.
ValueTrigger Price: Collapsed from $535 to $125. A 77% destruction of estimated fair value.
Growth Rate: Flipped from +4.79% to -1.04%.
This is what a thesis break looks like in the data. The system isn't telling you to buy. It's telling you the fundamentals have deteriorated dramatically.
Stock at $282, BuyTrigger at $248 = still above entry. ValueTrigger at $125 = significantly overvalued relative to impaired earnings power.
Translation: Watch, don't catch.
The Warning For Your Portfolio
UNH isn't unique. It's a warning.
Every portfolio has "safe" stocks that haven't been stress-tested. Names held for years because they've always worked. Positions that feel comfortable because of past performance.
The lesson from UNH:
- 37 years of growth doesn't guarantee year 38
- "Safe" stocks can lose 20% in a day
- Complacency is expensive
- Data beats hope
What Happens Next
April 2026 is the next catalyst. CMS finalises 2027 Medicare Advantage rates by April 6.
If the 0.09% proposal stands – continued margin pressure, more pain ahead.
If CMS moderates – potential relief rally.
Until then, UNH remains in limbo. The stock isn't at BuyTrigger levels. The thesis is broken. Patience required.
Why Systematic Data Matters
You can't predict CMS rate decisions. You can't predict when 37-year growth streaks end.
But you can measure the damage when it happens. You can have systematic entry points instead of gut feelings. You can know when fundamentals have deteriorated versus when a stock is just temporarily down.
That's what BuyTrigger 3.0 does. Not prediction. Measurement. Discipline.
UNH is now a cautionary tale. Make sure your portfolio doesn't have hidden versions of the same story.
BuyTrigger 3.0 Is Live
The system that measures what matters – rankings, triggers, valuations, growth rates – is now available for Essential and Premium members.
Essential gives you the core tools. Premium gives you everything: database access, portfolio reviews, Jensen AI on Telegram, and direct access to me.
This is the kind of market where systematic investing separates winners from losers.
Alex Koh is the founder of BuyTrigger.Club, helping families build long-term wealth through systematic, data-driven investing.
Disclaimer:
This blog post is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The views and opinions expressed in this post are solely my own and are based on my personal analysis and experience. All information is provided on an as-is basis, and while I strive to ensure accuracy, I make no guarantees regarding the completeness, reliability, or accuracy of the information provided.
Investing in stocks and financial instruments involves risk, including the potential loss of principal. Always conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions. This blog is intended as a personal journal to document my thoughts and strategies, and should not be taken as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities.
By reading this blog, you acknowledge that I am not responsible for any investment decisions you make based on the information provided here. Please exercise due diligence and consider your own financial situation and goals before making any investments.
Related Posts
What is Groq? Why Nvidia Paid $20 Billion for It
Nvidia just acquired Groq for $20B cash. What is Groq, why did Jensen pay 3x valuation, and what does it mean for $NVDA investors? Full breakdown inside.
Nvidia Rewrites the Future: GTC 2025's Bold Vision
A comprehensive analysis of Nvidia's GTC 2025 conference, examining the technological breakthroughs, market implications, and investment outlook. This article explores Nvidia's new GPU architectures, AI foundation models, and gigawatt AI factories, while providing a balanced market perspective on Nvidia's current valuation and future growth potential. Written by Dr. Alex Koh, engineer and investment analyst, with a focus on long-term technological trends and their financial impact.